Open Source Appropriate Technology - too little too late? Agroblogger's question

[Lucas]

http://www.agroblogger.com/2008/12/16/too-little-too-late/

The question: "what are 3 things that we could do to unfold OSAT fast enough?".

Go there, write anywhere, let's spread the questions and collect the answers.

[Lucas]

http://www.agroblogger.com/2008/12/17/osat-emerging/

follow https://twitter.com/agroinnovations

[Lucas]

The window is wider here than at agroblogger's, but I/anyone can crosspost if needed.

Thinking out loud on "3 things".

1) Unfold OSAT. What do we mean by that? Be able to buy solarcookers at Walmart and IKEA? Have a shop in every corner where we can make them? So what we'd need are business models. Infrastructure packages that are useful for people right now, where they sit, without making them go live out in the countryside or anything. Directly useful stuff. For sale.

2) Fast enough. I bet the crisis will go faster than whatever we do, if only because things happen in sequence: crisis brings motivation, motivation brings change. So our best bet would be to pre-position stuff that will be used when the need is felt, when people will use "whatever is available", so the crux of the question is Be Available! The Final Edition is an extreme way to frame that: turn appropedia into booklets that can be printed out with the last drops of civilisation's ink, in a rush, just before civilisation vanishes and all that. Booklets and DVDs with video and audio and stuff.

3) Things we can do.

a) Video, I'd say. Wikipages to collect videos, nag their authors for free licenses, tag pages and vote on a set of features that make the videos (and the technologies themselves) good for something. A set of criteria, a bit like Marcin's work on OSE. Maybe have more interviews Vinay style, for visibility of "the movement".

b) Business model as above. Needs to be worked on. A business model for the poor, another for the rich, another for the poor among the rich, etc.

c) Distros. Content that's packaged for certain uses or users or locations or income levels or whatever.

d) Videos for making the case. We need to sell our stuff, our ideas. Again, have someone on TV interview the real important people. Collect interviews, fill in the gaps.

e) Ok, so you don't like any of the ideas above, and there are obvious gaps in my thinking. So what you'll write is ...

[Reto]

Exactly yesterday I was thinking about an IKEA-kind of "sustainable" gadgets. Strange coincidence ...

I sign all your points. Valuable thoughts.

[Lucas]

We could focus on Europe and business models for the rich, and for the poor among the rich. In Europe. Do we have people from Fab Labs here? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fab_lab#Europe http://www.reprap.org reprap all over the world.

Time. I know time doesn't exist until we make it, but I can't make more time right now. Tough stuff.

[Lucas]

Re http://www.agroblogger.com/2008/12/18/we-need-a-revolution/

Right, so we don't need OSAT products at Walmart. We need meta-products. What would those meta-products be? Products that let us build other products: reprap machines, books, how-to videos and, yes, business models.

Agroblogger makes it even more specific and harder and to the point: "can we make it happen in 18 months"?

In a sense, we're chasing our own tail with this. OSAT is useable now, and available now. Or is it not? What are we talking about? Are we talking about pervasive OSAT? Glossy, cool, I-want-that-too OSAT? I think it would make sense to look at different kinds of technology:

1) Technology that's directly useable, basic. A solarcooker almost anyone can make. The beer bottle opener I saw at http://www.afrigadget.com/ and that anyone can make. http://www.afrigadget.com/2008/11/03/togolese-bottle-opener-simplic...
2) Technology that lets people make other things. A reprap machine (where will it be in 18 months). Marcin's CEB machine, aka Liberator.
3) Technology that's built with #2 and that solves real problems.

I think Vinay's "6 ways to die", or "6 keys to survival" really cuts to the chase. And we ain't done yet with "food swadeshi", at least we haven't finished with the "how do we decompress megacities in an agile and atractive manner" yet. But some folks, like Larahna, are busy at it.

Gadgets play a role. What are the other factors?

Looking at http://www.afrigadget.com it's pretty obvious our children and teens will find the way, no? We need to keep the net up, to somehow soften the landing. Then it will happen "all by itself", self-organisedly, a la "open space technology" (google for Harrison Owen on that).

We're of course part of the "all by itself".

"Curiouser and curiouser."

3 things to do. 18 months. Specifics?

Do we need a memetic shift on this, if the "make it available" is something that happens in people's heads? A book? What would it look like? It needs to be a 50-page booklet, at most. Developed over at wikipedia. Based on Vinay's 6wtD, maybe. But I'm lazy so I'll just suggest it. Invitations are the way to go for us lazy people. Just imagine if 10 thousand youngsters in each megacity felt invited to OSAT, and told each other through texting and twitting ... A twittable book?

[Lucas]

btw, http://www.reprap.org shows there's a whole ecosystem of cool, not-for-newbie, machines. Many different machines, some able to build parts for the others, or something. Laser cutters, even. And recyclable plastic.

Cars used to be like this, at some point in time.

18 months?

[Lucas]

http://www.agroblogger.com/2008/12/16/too-little-too-late/#comment-...

links to http://www.panarchy.com/Members/PaulBHartzog/Papers/TYF_06%20econ%2...

FWIW

[Lucas]

http://www.agroblogger.com/2008/12/19/self-replicating-machines-and...

On going-local-on-this, yes, I think we already have workshops full of tools and people able to use them. Over in my Spanish blog (here and here so far), bubbling with all the ideas that are resonating here, I've looked at what it would be to go Marcin's way (and also there's a ferrocement.com way which could be complementary and what-not). Thing is, I've done some math and found out that there could be an OSE-like shop in every "county", meaning maybe 40 thousand people. So yes, the next step after computing those figures is, Hey, there are already so many shops, and more, per 40 thousand people. They fix cars and do stuff. And they could be adapted to go, let's say, Marcin's way, and/or the reprap way. Business models included.

It may be that I had a really good night sleep last night. The fact remains that I think this is doable. And, erm, maybe not too slowly. I mean, as fast as we're motivated to do it. Which is the real point in my book. As fast as we're motivated to do it.

Still reading AgroBloggers new entry, btw! ;-)

... Done. Yeah. Ready for a podcast, man. You've got a useable tool to put stuff out there. Written text is, well, useful for those who want to do stuff (plus they also want video). But motivation comes through conversation, and that means voice. Yep.

/me does the (highly professional) rain-dance

Plus we need to look into food swadeshi. A real hard look at that. http://www.appropedia.org/Global_Food_Swadeshi_Project http://worldhelptrainingcenter.weebly.com/ http://www.appropedia.org/Convertible_community

18 months? 3 things each of us can do? 30 things so each and everyone will be able to select their __options__? Sounds like a plan, or at least a strategy. :-!

[Lonny Grafman]

My three things (posted first at agroblogger):

Before the model is more developed (i.e. now):
1. promote/advertise the conversation.

Once the model is more developed:
2. Get a student working on the project.

Once the model is much more developed:
3. Look for some grant money to help refine it and integrate it into university curriculum.

[Lucas]

Chris of Appropedia wrote at AgroBlogger's blog how distributed fabrication is good for design and away-from-wide-market production, but at some point and for some things, mass production is ok. I'm rephrasing __heavily__. Conversation at http://www.agroblogger.com/2008/12/18/we-need-a-revolution/

Thing is, the whole ecosystem is, even now, full of working designs that are not available via mass production. Take solarcookers, or open-design stoves, or solar-stills, or toilets. Can't find them at Walmart.

I think this is because of a few things. Markets work when production meets demand, or the other way round through advertising. Right now there's no significant demand, no significant production, and no advertising.

Let's take solarcookers. Let's say you want to do business with them. Lots of business. You want to see how 10 million solarcookers are sold in the US alone. And another 10 million in Europe. How would you go about that? What would need to happen? If you play your cards right, you'll sell maybe 1 million of all of that, while creating a larger market, but you're interested in your 1 million, and couldn't care less if other people make and sell 19 million more. After all, if you make 1 dollar/euro with each of those units, you make 1 million dollars/euros.

You could of course design "bundles". Solarcooker plus open-design stove plus recipe-book plus games about the science behind solarcookers (for kids). Solarcookers with thermometers and other things. Do as you like, but you want to sell 1 million of those, making a profit of 1 dollar/euro with each unit. At least.

You can use viral marketing, twitter-marketing, high-profile marketing, whatever works.

Can it be done? Will it be done? Or are solarcooking folks focused (no pun intended) in the developing world only? Yes, solarcookers might be sold in a 1+1 way, so that customers will feel they are helping the poor. But we can also make it very clear that these technologies are good in their own right, for people in rich countries too. Rich people in rich countries, and poor people in rich countries.

What would it look like? We could have mass production. A factory to make solarcookers, package them and put them in stores. Or many small workshops closer to customers. There could be a solarcooker in every home, in every rooftop, in every car. There could be customers helping design the logo, the ads, the moto.

What would start it? What's stopping it?

[Lucas]

I think the model for certain technologies is lightbulbs, not cellphones. Anyone can make lightbulbs, not so many can make the "multiple small" profit. There are standards, possibly due to expectations in the case of solarcookers, and regulations, probably due to safety concerns, etc. So it's not that going massive doesn't have its own hurdles.

I recall when RedHat Linux went public they had to think hard, and tell share buyers, about what could go wrong with their business model, a "just so you know" kind of document. Maybe we can do that in general and help the good guys make a decent buck, with solarcookers or in general. We'd all win from that, wouldn't we?

So maybe there's cellphones (services), lightbulbs (commodities), and some other models hidden there: community services, whatever. I have no clear map for the whole set of possibilities. Yet.

Or maybe that thinking has already been done and all we need is a sign in the "appropriate" direction.

[Lucas]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2008/dec/22/diy-adjustable-glasse...

So all may see.

But what can we learn from this?